Predictions for 01-March-2018

Betting Tips

Premier League
Arsenal	-v-	Manchester City	away win	Away 17/20

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Premier League

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Arsenal	0	3	Manchester City

How'm I doin' so far?

System.out.println("Hello, World");

In a first for this blog, this post is written by a human. To explain, the other posts have been procedurally generated by a Raspberry Pi using machine learning and statistics to predict outcomes and identify under-valued picks. You can read more about it on my personal blog here, however Blogger has a much friendlier API for bots to post to which is why my bot has its own blog.

11 Days* In

It’s been a great start, the model uses £1 stakes for comparison and after 11 days it is up £6.63 as depicted on the below chart:

There aren't many mid-week games this week so this wont change much before the weekend, I'll probably update the chart in s few weeks time.

Moneyball

A great start however it has been “lucky”, in the sense that it has thus far returned significantly greater than the sum of calculated probable returns. The model has been designed to seek out a profit but the high fluctuations combined with the relatively low number of observations for a machine learning problem mean I will not claim this is a winning formula.

Before this bot went live I simulated it against the entire 2016-2017 season (the model was trained out-of-band on games prior to this), and then verified again on games prior to the live date and it did still show a modest profit:

Peaks and Troughs

The line stays above zero which would make you think it’s a profitable solution, but consider if the graph’s timeframe started at the highest peak in the middle with that point being zero. In that case it would have been negative for the duration.

What I’m trying to say is a good start should not be considered indicative of future success. This kind of maths is better suited to baseball where teams play 162 games a year, and an individual’s effort can arguably contribute more to the game’s outcome.

*Technically it’s only nine calendar days, however the bot has said not to bet on today & tomorrow’s games so the status will be the same after 11 days.

Predictions for 27-February-2018

No Tips Today

Nothing was identified as a good value bet for this day, come back tomorrow but here are my full predictions anyway:

Full Predictions

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Hull City	1	1	Barnsley
Reading	1	1	Sheffield United

League 1

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
AFC Wimbledon	1	1	Blackburn Rovers
Bristol Rovers	0	3	Wigan Athletic
Peterborough United	2	1	Walsall

League 2

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Wycombe Wanderers	3	0	Coventry City

Predictions for 25-February-2018

Betting Tips

Premier League
Manchester United	-v-	Chelsea	away win	Away 9/4

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Premier League

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Crystal Palace	0	3	Tottenham Hotspur
Manchester United	1	1	Chelsea

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Cardiff City	2	1	Bristol City

Predictions for 24-February-2018

Betting Tips

Premier League
Watford	-v-	Everton	home win	Home 6/5
West Bromwich Albion	-v-	Huddersfield Town	away win	Away 7/2
Championship
Birmingham City	-v-	Barnsley	away win	Away 12/5
Fulham	-v-	Wolverhampton Wanderers	home win	Home 9/5
Leeds United	-v-	Brentford	away win	Away 7/5
Sunderland	-v-	Middlesbrough	home win	Home 29/10
League 2
Yeovil Town	-v-	Carlisle United	home win	Home 2/1

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Premier League

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Leicester City	2	1	Stoke City
Bournemouth	2	1	Newcastle United
Brighton and Hove Albion	1	1	Swansea City
Burnley	1	1	Southampton
Liverpool	3	0	West Ham United
West Bromwich Albion	1	1	Huddersfield Town
Watford	3	0	Everton

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Birmingham City	1	1	Barnsley
Burton Albion	1	1	Millwall
Leeds United	1	2	Brentford
Norwich City	3	0	Bolton Wanderers
Preston North End	3	0	Ipswich Town
Queens Park Rangers	3	1	Nottingham Forest
Reading	1	1	Derby County
Sheffield Wednesday	1	1	Aston Villa
Sunderland	1	1	Middlesbrough
Fulham	1	1	Wolverhampton Wanderers

League 1

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Bristol Rovers	2	1	Scunthorpe United
Bury	1	1	Gillingham
Charlton Athletic	1	0	Shrewsbury Town
Fleetwood Town	1	1	Milton Keynes Dons
Northampton Town	1	1	Oxford United
Oldham Athletic	2	1	Southend United
Peterborough United	2	1	AFC Wimbledon
Plymouth Argyle	2	1	Bradford City
Portsmouth	3	0	Blackpool
Rotherham United	3	0	Doncaster Rovers
Walsall	0	2	Blackburn Rovers
Wigan Athletic	3	0	Rochdale

League 2

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Accrington Stanley	1	0	Cambridge United
Chesterfield	1	1	Swindon Town
Forest Green Rovers	1	1	Crawley Town
Grimsby Town	1	1	Exeter City
Lincoln City	3	0	Crewe Alexandra
Luton Town	3	0	Cheltenham Town
Notts County	3	0	Stevenage
Port Vale	1	1	Newport County AFC
Wycombe Wanderers	3	0	Morecambe
Yeovil Town	1	1	Carlisle United

Predictions for 23-February-2018

No Tips Today

Nothing was identified as a good value bet for this day, come back tomorrow but here are my full predictions anyway:

Full Predictions

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Hull City	1	1	Sheffield United

Predictions for 21-February-2018

Betting Tips

Championship
Derby County	-v-	Leeds United	home win	Home 5/6
Wolverhampton Wanderers	-v-	Norwich City	home win	Home 8/13
League 1
Rochdale	-v-	Milton Keynes Dons	home win	Home 1/1

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Bristol City	1	1	Fulham
Derby County	3	0	Leeds United
Ipswich Town	1	1	Cardiff City
Wolverhampton Wanderers	3	0	Norwich City

League 1

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Rochdale	3	0	Milton Keynes Dons

Predictions for 20-February-2018

Betting Tips

Championship
Brentford	-v-	Birmingham City	home win	Home 7/10
Millwall	-v-	Sheffield Wednesday	home win	Home 10/11
Sheffield United	-v-	Queens Park Rangers	home win	Home 8/11

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Aston Villa	1	1	Preston North End
Barnsley	2	1	Burton Albion
Brentford	3	0	Birmingham City
Middlesbrough	1	0	Hull City
Millwall	3	0	Sheffield Wednesday
Nottingham Forest	1	1	Reading
Sheffield United	3	1	Queens Park Rangers
Bolton Wanderers	1	1	Sunderland

League 1

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Fleetwood Town	1	1	Portsmouth
Shrewsbury Town	1	1	Gillingham

League 2

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Cambridge United	1	1	Notts County
Crewe Alexandra	1	1	Exeter City
Barnet	1	1	Carlisle United

Predictions for 19-February-2018

Betting Tips

League 1
Blackburn Rovers	-v-	Bury	home win	Home 8/15

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

League 1

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Blackburn Rovers	3	0	Bury

Predictions for 18-February-2018

Betting Tips

Championship
Norwich City	-v-	Ipswich Town	home win	Home 3/4

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Norwich City	2	0	Ipswich Town
Leeds United	1	1	Bristol City

League 1

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Blackpool	2	1	Peterborough United

Predictions for 17-February-2018

Betting Tips

Championship
Queens Park Rangers	-v-	Bolton Wanderers	home win	Home 10/11
Sunderland	-v-	Brentford	away win	Away 23/20
League 1
Doncaster Rovers	-v-	Fleetwood Town	home win	Home 1/1
Scunthorpe United	-v-	Northampton Town	home win	Home 4/5
League 2
Carlisle United	-v-	Chesterfield	home win	Home 4/5

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Birmingham City	1	1	Millwall
Burton Albion	1	1	Nottingham Forest
Cardiff City	2	0	Middlesbrough
Fulham	2	1	Aston Villa
Preston North End	1	1	Wolverhampton Wanderers
Queens Park Rangers	3	0	Bolton Wanderers
Sunderland	1	3	Brentford

League 1

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
AFC Wimbledon	1	1	Bristol Rovers
Doncaster Rovers	3	0	Fleetwood Town
Gillingham	2	1	Walsall
Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	Charlton Athletic
Oxford United	1	1	Plymouth Argyle
Scunthorpe United	3	1	Northampton Town
Shrewsbury Town	1	1	Rotherham United
Southend United	1	1	Portsmouth

League 2

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Barnet	1	1	Accrington Stanley
Cambridge United	1	0	Grimsby Town
Carlisle United	3	0	Chesterfield
Cheltenham Town	1	1	Wycombe Wanderers
Crawley Town	1	1	Lincoln City
Morecambe	1	1	Forest Green Rovers
Newport County AFC	1	1	Notts County
Stevenage	1	1	Yeovil Town
Swindon Town	2	1	Port Vale