Predictions for 01-September-2018

Betting Tips

Premier League
Brighton and Hove Albion	-v-	Fulham	away win	Away 9/4
West Ham United	-v-	Wolverhampton Wanderers	away win	Away 9/5
Championship
Brentford	-v-	Nottingham Forest	home win	Home 17/20
Sheffield United	-v-	Aston Villa	away win	Away 21/10
West Bromwich Albion	-v-	Stoke City	home win	Home 1/1
League 1
Walsall	-v-	Blackpool	away win	Away 2/1
League 2
Cheltenham Town	-v-	Colchester United	home win	Home 13/5
Grimsby Town	-v-	Yeovil Town	away win	Away 2/1
Stevenage	-v-	Cambridge United	away win	Away 9/4

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Premier League

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Leicester City	0	3	Liverpool
Brighton and Hove Albion	0	3	Fulham
Chelsea	3	0	Bournemouth
Crystal Palace	2	1	Southampton
Everton	3	0	Huddersfield Town
West Ham United	1	1	Wolverhampton Wanderers
Manchester City	4	0	Newcastle United

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Birmingham City	3	0	Queens Park Rangers
Brentford	3	0	Nottingham Forest
Hull City	1	1	Derby County
Preston North End	3	0	Bolton Wanderers
Reading	1	1	Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield United	1	1	Aston Villa
West Bromwich Albion	3	0	Stoke City
Wigan Athletic	3	0	Rotherham United
Millwall	1	1	Swansea City

League 1

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Accrington Stanley	2	1	Scunthorpe United
Barnsley	3	0	Gillingham
Burton Albion	1	1	AFC Wimbledon
Coventry City	1	1	Rochdale
Fleetwood Town	3	0	Bradford City
Peterborough United	2	1	Doncaster Rovers
Portsmouth	2	1	Plymouth Argyle
Shrewsbury Town	1	1	Bristol Rovers
Southend United	1	1	Charlton Athletic
Sunderland	3	0	Oxford United
Walsall	1	1	Blackpool
Wycombe Wanderers	1	1	Luton Town

League 2

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Bury	3	0	Morecambe
Cheltenham Town	1	1	Colchester United
Crewe Alexandra	2	1	Macclesfield Town
Exeter City	1	1	Lincoln City
Grimsby Town	1	1	Yeovil Town
Mansfield Town	1	1	Carlisle United
Northampton Town	2	1	Tranmere Rovers
Notts County	1	1	Forest Green Rovers
Oldham Athletic	3	0	Crawley Town
Port Vale	1	1	Newport County AFC
Stevenage	1	1	Cambridge United
Swindon Town	1	1	Milton Keynes Dons

Predictions for 31-August-2018

No Tips Today

Nothing was identified as a good value bet for this day, come back tomorrow but here are my full predictions anyway:

Full Predictions

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Leeds United	1	1	Middlesbrough

Predictions for 27-August-2018

No Tips Today

Nothing was identified as a good value bet for this day, come back tomorrow but here are my full predictions anyway:

Full Predictions

Premier League

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Manchester United	1	1	Tottenham Hotspur

Predictions for 26-August-2018

Betting Tips

Premier League
Fulham	-v-	Burnley	home win	Home 19/20

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Premier League

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Watford	1	1	Crystal Palace
Fulham	3	0	Burnley
Newcastle United	0	1	Chelsea

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Rotherham United	1	1	Millwall

How'm I doin' so far? - Part 3

Asleep at the wheel

After reaching dizzying heights of up £16.57 from £1 bets something strange happened. After Easter some teams who were safe from relegation but no chance of playoff/Europe spots just stopped showing up.

It makes perfect sense when you think about it, but when you’re a computer algorithm that hasn’t been trained to know about such “sleepwalking to the end of the season” it takes you by surprise. The model thought these teams would play as well as they should do whereas the human punters I’m competing against knew better. The model thought is saw value where there was none and plummeted to only £1.30 up.

What’s that done to the graph?

A rapid decline.

I’m faring better with the start of the new season and have climbed back to currently £4.80 up.

Lessons Learned

When building the model I was aware of some cases where a team would not perform as well as past data would suggest, notably newly promoted teams go from being the best in their league to one of the worst. I accounted for this by introducing a different-division factor, which was essentially a value between -1 and 1 showing what proportion of past games used by the model were played in a different division, with negative being in a lower division and positive in a higher one. 0 means all sampled games were in the same division.

This variable alone made a significant improvement in the accuracy of my model. I should have applied this logic to games remaining in the division, and what they had to play for.

It seems fairly consistent how many points are needed for safety and playoff positions year by year, were I to retraining the model I would this time calculate how many games each team had remaining, how many points they had, and how many they were off/above playoff/safety as this should help protect against this false value.

Either that or I’d just turn the Pi off after Easter

Re-train?

I’d like to retrain the model with new variables at some point but regrettably it won’t be soon. I’m currently working on Ice Hockey analysis which I hope to start publishing in a different platform soon, but it would be nice if I can get the new model up and running by Easter. In either case I’ll keep this current model going as long as I can stop the scraping scripts from falling-over for.

Predictions for 25-August-2018

Betting Tips

Premier League
Bournemouth	-v-	Everton	home win	Home 6/4
Huddersfield Town	-v-	Cardiff City	away win	Away 12/5
Southampton	-v-	Leicester City	away win	Away 21/10
Championship
Bolton Wanderers	-v-	Sheffield United	home win	Home 11/4
Norwich City	-v-	Leeds United	home win	Home 8/5
Nottingham Forest	-v-	Birmingham City	away win	Away 16/5
Stoke City	-v-	Hull City	away win	Away 14/5
League 1
Blackpool	-v-	Accrington Stanley	home win	Home 23/20
Bradford City	-v-	Wycombe Wanderers	away win	Away 5/2

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Premier League

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Wolverhampton Wanderers	0	3	Manchester City
Arsenal	3	0	West Ham United
Bournemouth	2	1	Everton
Huddersfield Town	1	1	Cardiff City
Southampton	1	1	Leicester City
Liverpool	3	0	Brighton and Hove Albion

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Aston Villa	3	0	Reading
Blackburn Rovers	1	1	Brentford
Bolton Wanderers	1	1	Sheffield United
Derby County	1	1	Preston North End
Norwich City	2	1	Leeds United
Queens Park Rangers	1	1	Wigan Athletic
Sheffield Wednesday	1	1	Ipswich Town
Stoke City	1	1	Hull City
Swansea City	1	0	Bristol City
Nottingham Forest	1	1	Birmingham City

League 1

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
AFC Wimbledon	1	1	Sunderland
Blackpool	3	1	Accrington Stanley
Bradford City	1	1	Wycombe Wanderers
Bristol Rovers	1	1	Southend United
Charlton Athletic	2	1	Fleetwood Town
Doncaster Rovers	1	1	Portsmouth
Gillingham	2	0	Coventry City
Luton Town	2	1	Shrewsbury Town
Oxford United	1	1	Burton Albion
Plymouth Argyle	1	1	Peterborough United
Rochdale	2	1	Walsall
Scunthorpe United	0	3	Barnsley

League 2

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Cambridge United	2	1	Cheltenham Town
Carlisle United	2	1	Crewe Alexandra
Colchester United	2	1	Northampton Town
Crawley Town	1	1	Bury
Forest Green Rovers	1	1	Swindon Town
Lincoln City	3	1	Notts County
Macclesfield Town	1	3	Mansfield Town
Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	Exeter City
Morecambe	0	1	Oldham Athletic
Newport County AFC	1	0	Grimsby Town
Tranmere Rovers	1	1	Port Vale
Yeovil Town	1	1	Stevenage

Predictions for 24-August-2018

No Tips Today

Nothing was identified as a good value bet for this day, come back tomorrow but here are my full predictions anyway:

Full Predictions

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Middlesbrough	1	1	West Bromwich Albion

Predictions for 22-August-2018

Betting Tips

Championship
Stoke City	-v-	Wigan Athletic	away win	Away 5/2

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Aston Villa	1	1	Brentford
Blackburn Rovers	3	0	Reading
Norwich City	1	1	Preston North End
Sheffield Wednesday	1	1	Millwall
Bolton Wanderers	1	1	Birmingham City
Stoke City	1	1	Wigan Athletic

Predictions for 21-August-2018

Betting Tips

Championship
Swansea City	-v-	Leeds United	home win	Home 19/10
League 1
Blackpool	-v-	Coventry City	home win	Home 7/5
Bradford City	-v-	Burton Albion	away win	Away 2/1
Luton Town	-v-	Southend United	away win	Away 5/2
Oxford United	-v-	Accrington Stanley	away win	Away 23/10
League 2
Lincoln City	-v-	Bury	away win	Away 3/1
Macclesfield Town	-v-	Cheltenham Town	away win	Away 9/5
Newport County AFC	-v-	Notts County	home win	Home 17/10
Tranmere Rovers	-v-	Mansfield Town	away win	Away 17/10
Yeovil Town	-v-	Oldham Athletic	away win	Away 19/10

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Derby County	2	1	Ipswich Town
Queens Park Rangers	1	1	Bristol City
Rotherham United	1	1	Hull City
Swansea City	1	1	Leeds United

League 1

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
AFC Wimbledon	2	0	Walsall
Blackpool	3	0	Coventry City
Bradford City	1	1	Burton Albion
Bristol Rovers	1	1	Portsmouth
Charlton Athletic	1	0	Peterborough United
Doncaster Rovers	1	1	Shrewsbury Town
Luton Town	1	1	Southend United
Oxford United	1	1	Accrington Stanley
Plymouth Argyle	1	1	Wycombe Wanderers
Rochdale	1	1	Barnsley

League 2

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Cambridge United	1	1	Exeter City
Carlisle United	1	0	Port Vale
Colchester United	1	1	Crewe Alexandra
Crawley Town	1	1	Swindon Town
Forest Green Rovers	1	1	Stevenage
Lincoln City	1	1	Bury
Macclesfield Town	1	2	Cheltenham Town
Milton Keynes Dons	2	0	Grimsby Town
Morecambe	1	1	Northampton Town
Newport County AFC	1	1	Notts County
Tranmere Rovers	1	2	Mansfield Town
Yeovil Town	1	1	Oldham Athletic

Predictions for 20-August-2018

No Tips Today

Nothing was identified as a good value bet for this day, come back tomorrow but here are my full predictions anyway:

Full Predictions

Premier League

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Crystal Palace	0	2	Liverpool

Predictions for 19-August-2018

Betting Tips

Premier League
Burnley	-v-	Watford	away win	Away 11/5

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Premier League

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Burnley	1	1	Watford
Manchester City	3	0	Huddersfield Town
Brighton and Hove Albion	0	3	Manchester United

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Brentford	3	0	Sheffield Wednesday

League 1

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Sunderland	3	1	Scunthorpe United

Predictions for 18-August-2018

Betting Tips

Premier League
Cardiff City	-v-	Newcastle United	home win	Home 21/10
Everton	-v-	Southampton	away win	Away 3/1
West Ham United	-v-	Bournemouth	away win	Away 12/5
Championship
Hull City	-v-	Blackburn Rovers	away win	Away 21/10
Preston North End	-v-	Stoke City	home win	Home 7/5
Reading	-v-	Bolton Wanderers	away win	Away 14/5
Wigan Athletic	-v-	Nottingham Forest	home win	Home 7/5
League 1
Coventry City	-v-	Plymouth Argyle	away win	Away 5/2
Shrewsbury Town	-v-	Blackpool	away win	Away 12/5
Walsall	-v-	Gillingham	away win	Away 21/10
League 2
Cheltenham Town	-v-	Carlisle United	away win	Away 9/5
Oldham Athletic	-v-	Macclesfield Town	home win	Home 4/5
Port Vale	-v-	Crawley Town	away win	Away 14/5

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Premier League

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Cardiff City	1	1	Newcastle United
Everton	1	1	Southampton
Leicester City	2	1	Wolverhampton Wanderers
Tottenham Hotspur	3	0	Fulham
West Ham United	1	1	Bournemouth
Chelsea	3	0	Arsenal

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Bristol City	1	1	Middlesbrough
Hull City	1	1	Blackburn Rovers
Ipswich Town	1	1	Aston Villa
Leeds United	2	1	Rotherham United
Millwall	1	1	Derby County
Reading	1	1	Bolton Wanderers
Sheffield United	1	1	Norwich City
West Bromwich Albion	2	1	Queens Park Rangers
Wigan Athletic	2	1	Nottingham Forest
Preston North End	3	0	Stoke City

League 1

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Accrington Stanley	1	1	Charlton Athletic
Barnsley	3	0	AFC Wimbledon
Burton Albion	1	1	Doncaster Rovers
Coventry City	2	1	Plymouth Argyle
Fleetwood Town	1	1	Rochdale
Peterborough United	2	1	Luton Town
Portsmouth	3	0	Oxford United
Shrewsbury Town	1	1	Blackpool
Southend United	3	0	Bradford City
Walsall	1	1	Gillingham
Wycombe Wanderers	1	1	Bristol Rovers

League 2

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Grimsby Town	1	1	Lincoln City
Bury	3	1	Forest Green Rovers
Cheltenham Town	1	1	Carlisle United
Crewe Alexandra	1	1	Milton Keynes Dons
Exeter City	2	0	Newport County AFC
Mansfield Town	2	0	Colchester United
Northampton Town	1	1	Cambridge United
Oldham Athletic	3	0	Macclesfield Town
Port Vale	1	1	Crawley Town
Stevenage	1	1	Morecambe
Swindon Town	2	1	Tranmere Rovers

Predictions for 17-August-2018

No Tips Today

Nothing was identified as a good value bet for this day, come back tomorrow but here are my full predictions anyway:

Full Predictions

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Birmingham City	1	1	Swansea City

League 2

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Notts County	1	1	Yeovil Town

Predictions for 12-August-2018

Betting Tips

Premier League
Southampton	-v-	Burnley	away win	Away 4/1

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Premier League

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Liverpool	3	0	West Ham United
Southampton	1	1	Burnley
Arsenal	1	3	Manchester City

Predictions for 11-August-2018

Betting Tips

Premier League
Bournemouth	-v-	Cardiff City	away win	Away 10/3
Watford	-v-	Brighton and Hove Albion	home win	Home 13/10
Championship
Bolton Wanderers	-v-	Bristol City	home win	Home 19/10
Rotherham United	-v-	Ipswich Town	home win	Home 13/10
Stoke City	-v-	Brentford	away win	Away 21/10
League 1
Blackpool	-v-	Portsmouth	home win	Home 2/1
Bristol Rovers	-v-	Accrington Stanley	away win	Away 16/5
League 2
Cambridge United	-v-	Notts County	home win	Home 8/5
Forest Green Rovers	-v-	Oldham Athletic	away win	Away 9/5
Lincoln City	-v-	Swindon Town	away win	Away 10/3
Milton Keynes Dons	-v-	Bury	away win	Away 16/5
Tranmere Rovers	-v-	Cheltenham Town	away win	Away 13/5
Yeovil Town	-v-	Mansfield Town	home win	Home 13/5

Note: These tips are selected using best-value betting by comparing my calculated probability with the bookmaker's implied probability. As such they do not necessarily align with the predicted scores below and they will probably all loose.

Full Predictions

Premier League

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Newcastle United	1	1	Tottenham Hotspur
Bournemouth	2	1	Cardiff City
Fulham	2	1	Crystal Palace
Huddersfield Town	0	2	Chelsea
Watford	3	0	Brighton and Hove Albion
Wolverhampton Wanderers	2	0	Everton

Championship

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Aston Villa	1	1	Wigan Athletic
Blackburn Rovers	2	1	Millwall
Bolton Wanderers	1	1	Bristol City
Middlesbrough	3	1	Birmingham City
Norwich City	1	1	West Bromwich Albion
Nottingham Forest	3	0	Reading
Queens Park Rangers	1	1	Sheffield United
Rotherham United	3	1	Ipswich Town
Sheffield Wednesday	1	1	Hull City
Stoke City	0	2	Brentford
Swansea City	1	1	Preston North End
Derby County	3	1	Leeds United

League 1

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
AFC Wimbledon	2	1	Coventry City
Blackpool	1	1	Portsmouth
Bradford City	1	1	Barnsley
Bristol Rovers	2	1	Accrington Stanley
Charlton Athletic	1	0	Shrewsbury Town
Doncaster Rovers	1	1	Wycombe Wanderers
Gillingham	1	1	Burton Albion
Luton Town	1	1	Sunderland
Oxford United	1	1	Fleetwood Town
Plymouth Argyle	1	1	Southend United
Rochdale	1	1	Peterborough United
Scunthorpe United	3	1	Walsall

League 2

Home Team	Home Score	Away Score	Away Team
Cambridge United	3	1	Notts County
Carlisle United	1	1	Northampton Town
Colchester United	1	0	Port Vale
Crawley Town	1	1	Stevenage
Forest Green Rovers	1	1	Oldham Athletic
Lincoln City	1	1	Swindon Town
Macclesfield Town	2	1	Grimsby Town
Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	Bury
Morecambe	1	1	Exeter City
Newport County AFC	1	1	Crewe Alexandra
Tranmere Rovers	1	3	Cheltenham Town
Yeovil Town	1	1	Mansfield Town